In the following Santa Rosa Press Democrat article on the likely defeat of five of the six measures on the California Special Election Ballot, Sonoma County Republican Party Chairman Michael Erickson comments: “We’re on the crest of a tax revolt in this state we haven’t seen since the late 1970s,” when Proposition 13 put a real lid on the property tax increases. Furthermore, rather than be concerned about the prospect of further cuts in state spending, he favors a fiscal strangling of the “bureaucratized, top heavy, socialized state,” that robs California of her prosperity.

Voters Taking Dim View of Ballot Measures, by Guy Kovner (SR Press Democrat)

California voters appear ready to vent their frustration eight days from today on a package of ballot measures crafted by state lawmakers to ease the state’s fiscal crisis.

Ballot measure backers, including Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and Democratic lawmakers, are pushing six measures on the May 19 special election ballot. They are bolstering their campaign with a multi-million-dollar advertising blitz and threats of drastic budget cuts if the propositions fail.

But voters, whose homes and businesses have been battered by the recession, seem to resent Sacramento asking for more of their money, according to a series of statewide polls.

And critics of big government, who blame an overweight bureaucracy for stifling prosperity, say the taxpayer resistance is welcome.

“It’s an exclamation mark from voters,” said Michael Erickson, Sonoma County Republican Central Committee chairman. “We’re on the crest of a tax revolt in this state we haven’t seen since the late 1970s,” when Proposition 13 put a lid on property tax increases.

Two separate polls have showed voter sentiment leaning against all five of the budget-related measues. Opposition to two key measures — Propositions 1A and 1C — rises to as high as 65 percent in a survey of voters who are “following election news closely,” according to the Public Policy Institute of California poll released last Thursday.

“The voters who are really tuned in are really turned off,” said Mark Baldassare, president of the polling institute.

With state tax revenues driven down by the economic slump, the deficit for the fiscal year starting July 1 stands at $8 billion, and lawmakers are counting on $6 billion in revenues from the ballot measures to keep the shortfall from growing far worse.

Proposition 1A offers a spending cap pushed by Republican lawmakers coupled with $15 billion in tax revenue. Approval would extend for up to two years the sales tax, personal income tax and vehicle license fee increases adopted by the Legislature in February.

Proposition 1B, which takes effect only if Proposition 1A passes, provides for a payback of up to $800 million a year for education.

Proposition 1C allows $5 billion or more in borrowing from future lottery profits to help balance the upcoming budget.

Propositions 1D and 1E add about $800 million by diverting funds from mental health and early childhood development programs.

The voter mood is reflected in strong support for only one measure - Proposition 1F. It would bar legislative and statewide constitutional officers, including the governor, from receiving pay raises when the state is running a budget deficit.

The significance of the May 19 vote is that it will dictate just how deep the state’s budget hole will be. Without voter approval of the measures, the deficit reaches $14 billion, or 15 percent of the state’s $93 billion general fund budget.

As a wildfire attacked Santa Barbara last week. Schwarzenegger said he would cut 1,700 state firefighters’ jobs if the three measures fail.

“These are not scare tactics,” said Assemblywoman Noreen Evans, D-Santa Rosa, who heads the Assembly Budget Committee. “This is real. This is not a drill.”

If the ballot measures are rejected, lawmakers will return to the budget negotiating table with Republicans remaining staunchly opposed to new taxes, Evans said.

Despite warnings that billions likely would be cut from education and health services, lawmakers are facing a deep well of voter distrust.

Critics say Sacramento has ignored the root causes of the state’s recurring red ink for at least 10 years.

California is “unable to collect what we spend,” said Larry Gerston, a professor of political science at San Jose State University. If the ballot measures lose, he said, the governor and lawmakers will “finally be forced to confront reality.”

What Sacramento has done up to now, critics say, is cobble together patchwork measures, sometimes derided as “smoke and mirrors,” to push off budget deficits but not eliminate them.

Gerston criticized Proposition 1C for raiding lottery profits, which have always been earmarked for education, and for requiring future paybacks of about $400 million a year.

“Nobody believes the politicians in Sacramento anymore,” said David McCuan, a Sonoma State University political scientist. What the public sees are “half-baked solutions that serve special interests,” he said.

Whether the ballot measures pass or fail, McCuan said, state leaders need to tackle the basics. “You’re going to have to close the holes,” he said.

Evans, a former Santa Rosa councilwoman, said people will feel the post-election budget cuts if the ballot measures fall.

“We’ve never seen anything like this before,” she said.

Courts may close one day a month, parks may close. “Nothing is immune,” Evans said.

Erickson, the local Republican leader, said he welcomes the prospect of budget cuts that strangle what he calls a “bureaucratized, top-heavy socialized state” that robs California of economic vigor.

“We would not see this as a negative development at all,” Erickson said.

Even if the ballot measures pass, California’s budget woes barely skip a beat. The projected deficit in 2010-11 is $12.6 billion, swelling to $26 billion by 2013-14, according to the nonpartisan Legislative Analyst’s Office.

“It’s very discouraging,” said Michael Cohen, deputy legislative analyst.